Watching the State of The Union. POTUS just called us the most powerful country in the world. Period. This is of true of course. The last two books I have read or listened too scare the crap out of me, however. Why?
Cause we are stuck in the model of thinking about nation state to nation state, and not nation state to individuals or groups that do not have the things to lose that a Russia, or a China, have to lose.
“One Second After” and now, just released by Ted Koppel, “Lights Out” are about the same basic problem but from two different causes. “One Second After” by William R. Forstchen looks at the aftermath of a large scale EMP attack on the USA. A work of fiction, it gets the details correct on what would happen if an EMP shredded modern electrical grids and anything with a computer circuit. “Lights Out” is, horrifyingly, NOT a work of fiction but an incredible piece of journalism by one of the best. Koppel looks at the consequences of a cyberattack that could leave us without a functional electrical grid for months or years.
These possible attacks are all to real–and within the technical capabilities of failing states, terror groups, and in the case of cyber, individual actors. And the scariest thing of all is that we, the most powerful country in the world, do not have a plan. Not even those in charge of our emergency response systems agree on how to deal with the threat, or more importantly, the aftermath.
One group that Koppel studied in his book do have a plan. The Mormons, who practice preparation as a doctrine, are ready for just about anything. It is an actual part of their religion. Many people who live in cities have, at most, a weeks worth of food in their house. Maybe a day or less of water if the taps stop working. Most Mormons have at least six months of food, water and supplies stockpiled, and that doesn’t include the church owned and operated warehouses, farms, and other distribution operations that would make Walmart look like kids play.
Our government has no such plan. None. Many agree that it is a threat that can and possibly will happen. But no one has acted on it, either in the form of long lasting protections to the system (which as Koppel explains will require industry and individual alike to sacrifice privacy) or in planning for recovery. Equipment is old and hard to replace. Some of it is huge and there are no longer ways to transport it in our country. Some equipment is only made overseas. And beyond the technical problems…what about us? The people? Many think that 70% or more of our population won’t make it through the first winter. There is no plan to help save as many as possible from “routine” medical conditions. From violence. From starvation.
On a small scale, for say, 30 million people that might be affected if one of our three grids crashed for a year, estimates are that it would take roughly $60 billion dollars to stockpile a year of food supplies. That is chump change. There should be 10 of those warehouses already built.
Our lives are fully intwined in the electric grid, in the internet. The very things that save so many of us in our day to day lives could possible be our ruin if removed. The vast majority of us are ill-equipped to go back to a mid-1800’s lifestyle. We can not grow the good we need, we can not build new houses, or repair 40 year old cars.
Perhaps we should all start learning how to do these things. And perhaps we should all start buying an extra case of water every trip to the grocery store.